US Online Ad Spend Set To Exceed Print For First Time in 2012

From Marketingcharts.org – full story here

Also see story below we linked to about the gross overestimates routine for online advertising.

US Online Ad Spend Set to Exceed Print (Update)

US online ad spending will exceed the total spent on print magazines and newspapers this year for the first time, according to
a January 2012 eMarketer estimate that projects $39.5 billion in online
ad spending, $19.4 billion in newspaper ad spending, and $15.4 billion
in magazine ad spending. eMarketer estimates that online ad spending
will continue its dramatic growth to reach $62 billion by 2016, while
the print total will continue to decline to $32.3 billion that year.

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emarketer-print-online-ad-spend.jpg

 

US online ad spend is expected to grow by 23.3% this year, with
double-digit growth continuing through 2014 before slowing to 8.9% in
2015 and 7.8% in 2016.

TV Growth Unaffected

As online ad spending grows, so will TV, albeit more slowly, notes
eMarketer, which estimates that US TV spending will reach $72 billion in
2016. At that point, the gap between TV and online ad spending will be
$10 billion, compared to the $28.7 billion gap seen in 2011.

Overall, eMarketer projects total media ad spending to grow 6.7% this
year to $169.5 billion, boosted by national election campaigns and
gains in mobile spending. Growth will remain between 3-4% through 2016,
with spending reaching almost $200 billion by then. And while online
will be a major driver of that growth, traditional ad spending will for
the most part stagnate during the period.

Q1-Q3 ‘11 Ad Spend Up 1.5%

Total
US advertising expenditures in the first 9 months of 2011 increased
1.5% from the previous year, finishing the period at $104.7 billion, according to
December 2011 data from Kantar Media. Spending growth slowed during Q3,
up 0.4% compared to 2010, after rising 4.1% in Q1 and 2.8% in Q2.
Spending among the 10 largest advertisers in the first 9 months of 2011
was $11.8 billion, representing a 1.4% decline compared to the previous
year. Procter & Gamble maintained its top-ranked position with
spending of $2.1 billion through September, down 5.6% compared to 2010,
although its Q3 spending was flat compared to the previous year.

Meanwhile, expenditures for the 10 largest categories grew 3.1% in
the first 9 months of 2011, to $59.5 billion. For Q3, the aggregate
increase was 1.8%, although quarterly growth rates for 7 of the 10
categories trailed their year-to-date average. Automotive was the top
category with $9.9 billion of spending during the 9-month period, up 7%
from 2010. However, the bulk of the gain came early in the year, and
from April through September automotive budgets grew just 1%.

TV Ad Spending Rises

Most forms of TV displayed spending gains in Q3 2011: expenditures on
cable networks rose 6.5% during Q3, while year-to-date outlays grew
9.9%. Network TV registered its first quarterly gain of the year, as Q3
expenditures inched up 0.2%, although year-to-date expenditures remained
down 5.7%. Kantar insight suggests higher budgets from movie studios
and consumer package goods marketers accounted for the Q3 increase for
network TV, while the year-to-date decline can be attributed to the loss
of marquee college football and basketball programming to cable
networks in Q1.

Meanwhile, ad spending in Spanish Language Television jumped 18%
during Q3 2011 compared to Q3 2010, while syndication TV was also up
14.8% for the period. The only TV segment to lose ground was spot TV,
where spending fell 5.7% year-over-year in Q3, and was also down 2.7%
for the year-to-date.

Overall, compared to the corresponding periods in 2010, TV ad spending grew 2.3% for the year-to-date, and 3.2% for Q3.

The top 10 TV advertisers, led by Procter & Gamble, spent $7.3
billion in the medium during the first 9 months of 2011, up 0.1% from a
year ago. The group accounted for 15% of total TV expenditures by all
advertisers.

Most Other Media Also Post Gains

Outdoor spending slowed during the third quarter, but still
registered gains of 3.2% for Q3 and 8.6% for the first 9 months. The
pace of spending in radio media was more muted, but remained steady, up a
modest 1.1% in Q3 and 1.2% for the year-to-date, driven by over 2%
growth in local radio and network radio advertising.

Magazine media spending declined 1.2% for Q3, but rose 1.5% for the
year-to-date. The top 10 magazine advertisers invested $2.7 billion in
the medium for the year-to-date, a decrease of 2.8%. As a proportion of
total magazine ad spending by all advertisers, the top 10 accounted for
17.1%.

Although the internet sector posted a Q3 2011 drop of 2.9% compared
to last year, overall expenditures for the year-to-date were up 2.8%
compared to a year earlier. Display ad expenditures soared 15.8% in Q3
and 10.1% for the year-to-date, offsetting paid search drops of 14.4%
and 2.1%, respectively. The 10 largest internet advertisers, led by
General Motors, invested a total of $1.8 billion in paid search and
display campaigns, up 11.1% versus a year ago, and accounting for 10.8%
share of all internet ad dollars.

Newspapers Fare Poorly

The newspaper sector posted the worst figures of all media,
experiencing a 3.7% decline in spending in Q3 2011 compared to Q3 2010,
and 3.8% decrease for the year-to-date. Local newspapers, despite robust
budgets from local auto dealers and an uptick in financial advertising,
saw a 4.4% spending decline in Q3, and were down 3.9% year-to-date.

Print Media Get Spending, Lack Consumption

Meanwhile, according to December figures from eMarketer, although newspapers accounted for 15% of all US ad spending in 2011,
they held just a 4% share of adults’ daily media time. Magazines also
held a much larger share of ad spending than daily media time, at 9.7%
and 2.8%, respectively.

By contrast, eMarketer estimated that mobile accounted for 10.1%
share of adults’ media time each day, but less than 1% of ad dollars. TV
(42.5% vs. 42.2%), internet (25.9% vs. 21.9%), and radio (14.6% vs.
10.9%) all also displayed a higher share of adults’ daily time than
share of US ad spending.

eMarketer notes that time spent with the internet excludes internet
access via mobile, but online ad spending includes mobile internet ad
spending. As such, the total of the ad spending share for all the media
adds up to more than 100%.

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